Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Humans like predictions. Weather forecasts, election polls, they are never perfect, but they give you something to hold onto. They give us a sense of control, a reassurance that we are not flying blind. So with Covid-19, understandably, the question is on everyone’s mind: How is this going to play out? FiveThirtyEight, who essentially built its brand around making predictions, from US elections to soccer games to the Oscars, have an excellent explainer on why it’s so difficult to make predictions about Covid-19. In short: It’s all about compounding effects of uncertainty.