At the heart of the coronavirus pandemic: the failure of probabilistic reasoning? Some very interesting thoughts on why a lot of countries botched their early response to the virus. The key question, simplified: What should you do when you’re confronted with inconclusive evidence that something very bad might happen?

From Weekly Filet #298, in April 2020.

A Failure, But Not Of Prediction

A Failure, But Not Of Prediction

slatestarcodex.com

💔 Some older links might be broken — that's the state of the web, sadly. If you find one, ping me.

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