For most of human history, even the wealthiest people lived in absolute poverty by today’s standards. What if we applied the same logic to human knowledge? This essay makes the case that truth is not the default when people form beliefs. «Relative to a modern scientific worldview, almost everything people have ever believed about the world they are not in close perceptual contact with has been completely wrong.» Thus, the author argues, we shouldn’t be puzzled by how people remain ignorant of basic facts or are mislead by disinformation. «The deep question of social epistemology – the genuine puzzle – is not why people hold false beliefs. It is why people sometimes form true beliefs.»

When thinking about the future, I like to come back to this classic from 2017. We’re not that bad at predicting the future, we simply predict the wrong things. Contains this wonderful quote: «And yet, despite predicting half of our world, as a father in the 1950s he could not imagine why his daughter — my mother — wanted to work.»

Here’s a simple, yet intriguing exercise: Make a list of questions you find interesting and would like to find answers to. I stumbled upon this list by Patrick Collison, co-founder of fintech giant Stripe. I happen to find some of his questions interesting myself, but that’s beside the point. Have a look and maybe you feel inclined to make your own list. I remembered that I had made one a while ago, I think I’ll make a new one to kick off the new year.

You’ve likely heard it, you’ve probably said it yourself: «It’s better to beg forgiveness than ask permission.» I’ve used it countless times to allow myself (and people in my teams) to shake things up. And yet, I can’t help but agree with this take, making the case for a third option.

Julia Galef’s book «The Scout Mindset» is one of my favourites this year so far. In it, she makes the case for a «scout mindset» that strives to constantly refine its map, rather than the all too common «soldier mindset» that defends entrenched beliefs. One key skill of the scout mindset she discusses is the ability to have the appropriate amount of confidence in your beliefs. On her website, she offers a quick test you can take to see how well calibrated you are. Take the test here

You probably know the concept of «the wisdom of crowds»: Ask a lot of people independently, and their average answer will be very close to the truth. Here’s a fascinating insight: «Rather remarkably, the logic of the wisdom of crowds seems to apply to individuals too.»

We tend to think of children’s brains as yet to be fully developed versions of adult brains (as a father of two small kids, I can confirm that it definitely feels like this). This hour-long interview with psychologist and philosopher Alison Gopnik gave me a new perspective. Children’s brains have some unique capabilities that fade in adults and that artificial intelligence can learn from. Newsletter writer’s adult mind: blown. Listen to it now.

I don’t think you need to become a superforecaster. However, knowing how to make good guesstimates is a valuable skill, and this article has some good rules to follow.

It’s usually a good idea to start running when someone wants to tell you about a formula for living the best life you could possibly live. It’s worth making an exception for this one, though. 1. Because it’s well argued. 2. Because combining mirrored reciprocation with compound interest is not your usual carpe diem type of bullshittery. 3. Because what’s not to love about an ode to generalism and multidisciplinary thinking.

In this podcast episode, you’ll understand new things about Covid, science, disinformation, herd behaviours and authoritarianism, but the biggest insights are on the meta-level: Ezra Klein takes you inside the mind of one of the great generalist thinkers of our time, Zeynep Tufekci.