When we imagine different lives we could have lived, we tend to think about decisions we made, and roads not taken. What is far less appreciated, Morgan Housel elaborates in this podcast episode, are random events that could have changed everything. I’m fascinated by the experiment Housel describes – and cautiously curious about trying it myself: He wrote a detailed description of the life circumstances of his 20-year-old self. He then gave that description to ChatGPT and asked it to write 50 stories of how that 20-year-old’s life would likely continue. He got 50 versions of how his life could have been, including some shocking ones.

Some helpful tactical advice for saving meetings that have gone off the rails. «Take a deep breath and ask yourself: What’s really happening in this room right now? And then? Say it out loud.»

You might need a little time for this one. It’s indeed 1000 questions, and no easy ones, with the «simple goal to preserve wisdom, for you, your family or the world».

As we anxiously await the world’s scariest coin toss, I thought we might as well start with something completely different. Something that will make you feel lighter, even joyful. This is such a wonderful, charming talk about appreciating the small things, finding beauty and wonder in unexpected places. «I highly encourage you to go down all the rabbit holes. […] I just want us to appreciate everything endlessly.» (It starts a bit slow and confusing, but trust me, it’s so worth it.)

For most of human history, even the wealthiest people lived in absolute poverty by today’s standards. What if we applied the same logic to human knowledge? This essay makes the case that truth is not the default when people form beliefs. «Relative to a modern scientific worldview, almost everything people have ever believed about the world they are not in close perceptual contact with has been completely wrong.» Thus, the author argues, we shouldn’t be puzzled by how people remain ignorant of basic facts or are mislead by disinformation. «The deep question of social epistemology – the genuine puzzle – is not why people hold false beliefs. It is why people sometimes form true beliefs.»

When thinking about the future, I like to come back to this classic from 2017. We’re not that bad at predicting the future, we simply predict the wrong things. Contains this wonderful quote: «And yet, despite predicting half of our world, as a father in the 1950s he could not imagine why his daughter — my mother — wanted to work.»

Here’s a simple, yet intriguing exercise: Make a list of questions you find interesting and would like to find answers to. I stumbled upon this list by Patrick Collison, co-founder of fintech giant Stripe. I happen to find some of his questions interesting myself, but that’s beside the point. Have a look and maybe you feel inclined to make your own list. I remembered that I had made one a while ago, I think I’ll make a new one to kick off the new year.

You’ve likely heard it, you’ve probably said it yourself: «It’s better to beg forgiveness than ask permission.» I’ve used it countless times to allow myself (and people in my teams) to shake things up. And yet, I can’t help but agree with this take, making the case for a third option.

Julia Galef’s book «The Scout Mindset» is one of my favourites this year so far. In it, she makes the case for a «scout mindset» that strives to constantly refine its map, rather than the all too common «soldier mindset» that defends entrenched beliefs. One key skill of the scout mindset she discusses is the ability to have the appropriate amount of confidence in your beliefs. On her website, she offers a quick test you can take to see how well calibrated you are. Take the test here

You probably know the concept of «the wisdom of crowds»: Ask a lot of people independently, and their average answer will be very close to the truth. Here’s a fascinating insight: «Rather remarkably, the logic of the wisdom of crowds seems to apply to individuals too.»