Love or hate those World Cup predictions – I, for one, love them when they have a solid methodology behind them. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s comprehensive (yet still easy to understand) description of how they predict not just the World Cup (yay, 2% chance of Switzerland winning the title), but individual matches. The most fascinating part: how they adjust the odds during live matches.

From Weekly Filet #276, in June 2018.

How Our 2018 World Cup Predictions Work

FiveThirtyEight

💔 Some older links might be broken — that's the state of the web, sadly. If you find one, ping me.

You might also like

Striking Photographs of the Ancient Tradition of Honey Hunting in Nepal

Striking Photographs of the Ancient Tradition of Honey Hunting in Nepal

Wonder Year – How Roger Federer Upgraded His Game

Wonder Year – How Roger Federer Upgraded His Game

The New York Times Magazine

The Meaning of Serena Williams

The Meaning of Serena Williams

The New York Times Magazine

Icarus

Explore more →

Explore collections

36 links Bingeworthy Podcasts 41 links Making Sense of the Climate Crisis 42 links Making Sense of Artificial Intelligence 28 links The Art of Thinking (Differently) 17 links Work Smarter 11 links How Technology is Reshaping Our Humanity 11 links Hidden Wonders 20 links All-time Favourites 15 links The Stuff Our Modern World Runs On 16 links Stories, too good to put down

Book recommendations

2025 Book Club Books curious minds wished they discovered sooner Our most popular crowd-curated book recommendations thus far. Read the post →

Book Club illustration

Weekly Filet Book Club All recommendations from previous editions, at a glance. Find your next read → 📚 David's Bookshelf The books that shaped how I see the world and inform how I think and act. Browse the bookshelf →