Statistics

To get more like this, subscribe to the The Weekly Filet. 5 recommended links, every Friday, free home-delivery. Brought to you by journalist David Bauer. Learn more.

How Our 2018 World Cup Predictions Work

FiveThirtyEight

Love or hate those World Cup predictions – I, for one, love them when they have a solid methodology behind them. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s comprehensive (yet still easy to understand) description of how they predict not just the World Cup (yay, 2% chance of Switzerland winning the title), but individual matches. The most fascinating part: how they adjust the odds during live matches.