From the archive of the Weekly Filet: Some of the best on Statistics

How Our 2018 World Cup Predictions Work

FiveThirtyEight

Love or hate those World Cup predictions – I, for one, love them when they have a solid methodology behind them. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s comprehensive (yet still easy to understand) description of how they predict not just the World Cup (yay, 2% chance of Switzerland winning the title), but individual matches. The most fascinating part: how they adjust the odds during live matches.

From Weekly Filet #276, in June 2018.
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