The idea sounds simple: Predict the future by letting people make bets on it. However, while people buy stocks or place bets on soccer games based on how what they expect to happen, prediction markets never really took off. The one sentence answer: «There is no epistemic free lunch.» For more specifics, read the article.

From Weekly Filet #491, in May 2024.

Why prediction markets aren’t popular

Why prediction markets aren’t popular

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