Unlike the title might suggest, this isn’t a forceful argument that we will reach artificial general intelligence within five years. Instead, it’s a nuanced examination of the factors that influence how artificial intelligence will evolve. And why it’s likely that we will either get to AGI over the next couple of years, or see a significant slowdown in progress afterwards. This made me pause: «Today’s situation feels like February 2020 just before COVID lockdowns: a clear trend suggested imminent, massive change, yet most people continued their lives as normal.»

From Weekly Filet #523, in April 2025.