In recent years, there has been no shortage of shocks to the economy – Russia’s attack on Ukraine, rising inflation, Trump’s tariff tantrum, and, most recently, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. With all of those, for plenty of experts, the next recession seemed imminent. Except…it didn’t come. Are experts just bad at predicting? Or is something else at play? You’ll come out of this conversation with a better understanding. Hint: it has to do with a 100-leg stool.

From Weekly Filet #586, in September 2026.