Prediction markets – platforms where you can bet money on whether specific events in the near future will happen or not – have a bad reputation. For a reason. If that’s where you’re starting from, this episode is worth listening to. It explores why prediction markets could be great at forecasting, and why, in reality, things are messier. There’s also an important lesson for anyone making predictions (and think about it, you constantly make predictions): They force you to think not just about whether you believe something will happen or not – but how certain you are.

From Weekly Filet #587, in September 2026.