I don’t think you need to become a superforecaster. However, knowing how to make good guesstimates is a valuable skill, and this article has some good rules to follow.

From Weekly Filet #342, in April 2021.

How to See The Future Like a Superforecaster

every.to

💔 Some older links might be broken — that's the state of the web, sadly. If you find one, ping me.

Why adults lose the «beginner’s mind»

nytimes.com

The Art of Calling Out Room Dynamics

leadership.garden

How to be an expert in a changing world

Paul Graham

Via Negativa: The Process of Making Good Decisions By Eliminating Bad Ones

coffeeandjunk.com

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Book recommendations

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