If you want to know whether someone is serious about a prediction, make them bet money on it. This is the simple idea behind prediction markets, which have sharply risen in popularity recently. At their theoretical best, they could offer a glimpse to the future by aggregating what thousands of people are betting on to happen. In reality, well, not so much. If you want to understand this cultural phenomenon – and I think it’s worth taking a closer look – The NYT’s The Daily has an excellent primer.

From Weekly Filet #562, in February 2026.